This article examines one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects involving China and Central Asia: the construction of the China–Kyrgyz Republic–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a project that has been under discussion for more than two decades.
Author/Organization:
Dr. Jildiz Nicharapova holds a Doctoral degree in Political Science from Sciences Po Aix-en-Provence, University Aix-Marseille, France. Since 2023, she has been serving as an Associate Professor in the Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the American University of Central Asia (AUCA).
Abstract and keywords
The China–Kyrgyz Republic–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway has been under discussion for more than two decades and is widely regarded as a strategically important project for the Kyrgyz Republic’s landlocked economy. Once operational, the railway is expected to accelerate the country’s transformation into a regional transit state by providing improved access to global markets and strengthening its integration into international trade and logistics networks. Kyrgyz authorities view the project as a catalyst for long-term economic development, capable of stimulating investment in key sectors such as infrastructure, trade, transportation, education, and industry.
The railway will connect Kashgar in China with Andijan in Uzbekistan through the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, creating one of the shortest and most accessible overland routes between China, Central Asia, and broader international markets. In this sense, the CKU railway has the potential to strengthen Central Asia’s role as a strategic bridge between Europe and Asia. The project is also expected to diversify the Kyrgyz Republic’s transport and logistics capabilities, reducing its dependence on neighboring countries for trade routes and enhancing its importance within regional supply chains. Beyond its significance for the three participating countries, the railway could contribute to broader economic growth and connectivity throughout Central Asia.
This article examines the historical development of the CKU railway project and analyzes the major challenges and opportunities it presents for the Kyrgyz Republic. Particular attention is devoted to the economic, political, environmental, and geopolitical implications of the railway. The article explores the Kyrgyz government’s expectations regarding the project’s impact on economic development, trade, investment, employment, infrastructure modernization, and regional integration. It also evaluates concerns related to debt dependence on China, environmental and engineering risks, and the project’s possible effects on the Kyrgyz Republic’s relations with regional powers, particularly Russia and Kazakhstan. Since the CKU railway may compete with existing transit routes through these countries, its construction could influence regional geopolitical and economic dynamics.
The article employs both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative component includes analysis of academic literature, analytical reports, official statements, speeches, and government documents, as well as interviews conducted with academic experts and decision-makers from public institutions in the Kyrgyz Republic. The quantitative component relies on statistical data from academic and governmental sources, including national statistical committees, ministries, and international organizations.
Keywords: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, Kyrgyz Republic, Central Asia, China
List of acronyms and abbreviations:
- CKU – China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway
- JPC – joint project company
- PRC – People’s Republic of China
- BRI – Belt and Road Initiative
Introduction
Discussion of the CKU railway began in the 1990s but was postponed due to financial, technical, and geopolitical factors (Syed Fazil-e-Haider, 2025a). Interest in the project resurfaced in the early 2000s. The railway was envisioned as a major transport corridor linking the rail networks of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan with the Persian Gulf states and, ultimately, the European railway network. In 2012, China proposed a version of the project estimated to cost approximately $6–7 billion (Kaktus Media, 2024a), but the proposal was not approved by the other participating countries.
In March 2021, Uzbekistan expressed its readiness to participate in the design and construction of railway sections connecting China and the Kyrgyz Republic. In November 2021, Akylbek Japarov, then head of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic, announced that all design work on the Kyrgyz side had been completed and the documents submitted to China. Under the updated plan, 280 kilometers of railway would pass through the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, including 57 kilometers of tunnels. However, the closure of borders with China during the COVID-19 pandemic slowed progress on the project.
High-level talks between Chinese and Kyrgyz officials resumed in February 2022. Following these discussions, Akylbek Japarov announced plans to begin construction in the fall of 2022. The proposed route was identified as Torugart–Makmal–Jalal-Abad, and the feasibility study was expected to be completed by December 2022. Later, Roman Spassky, a representative of Kyrgyz Temir Zholu, stated that 157 Chinese specialists had arrived to work on the project and that the feasibility study would be finalized by the second quarter of 2023. He clarified the route as Torugart–Arpa–Makmal–Jalal-Abad and emphasized its strategic value for the Kyrgyz Republic, particularly because it would eventually connect to the planned Balykchy–Kochkor–Kara-Keche railway line in Makmal.
An agreement on cooperation for the CKU railway project was subsequently signed among the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Kyrgyz Republic, the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan, and China’s State Development and Reform Commission. In January 2023, a project office was established in Bishkek to coordinate construction activities (Kaktus Media, 2024a). By December 2024, China had completed all fieldwork and submitted the project’s feasibility study to the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan for review (Kaktus Media, 2024a). The final trilateral agreement was signed in Beijing on June 6, 2024. According to the agreement, the railway in the Kyrgyz Republic will follow a combined route linking Kashgar, Torugart, Makmal, Jalal-Abad, and Andijan (Kaktus Media, 2024a). Construction officially began in late December 2024 in the Jalal-Abad region of the Kyrgyz Republic (Kaktus Media, 2024c).
The total length of the CKU railway will be 532.53 kilometers, including 158.04 kilometers in China between Kashgar and Torugart, and 304.94 kilometers within the Kyrgyz Republic. Of the Kyrgyz section, 167.54 kilometers will use the Chinese standard gauge of 1,435 millimeters, while 138.77 kilometers will use the broader 1,520-millimeter gauge common in the post-Soviet space. The project includes the construction of 20 railway stations, including two border stations, one transshipment station, four intermediate stations, and 13 sidings. It also includes 48 bridges with a combined length of approximately 16 kilometers and 27 tunnels totaling around 103 kilometers. Altogether, bridges and tunnels will account for roughly 120 kilometers of the railway (24.kg, 2025b).
The three participating countries established a Joint Project Company (JPC) headquartered in the Kyrgyz Republic. Ownership shares are distributed as follows: 51% for the authorized Chinese organization or its subsidiary holding company, 24.5% for the authorized organization of the Kyrgyz Republic, and 24.5% for the authorized organization of Uzbekistan. Each side contributes capital in proportion to its shareholding.
Under the agreement, the Kyrgyz side is responsible for land acquisition, demolition, and resettlement costs, as well as for providing access to local construction materials, electricity, and water supply. The Kyrgyz authorities also committed to exempting Chinese and Uzbek personnel from work permit requirements and exempting project-related imports from taxes and customs duties. The Chinese side is responsible for design, procurement, and construction, including the section within China that will connect to the railway in the Kyrgyz Republic (Kaktus Media, 2024a).
The section from Torugart to Makmal will use the 1,435-millimeter Chinese gauge. A transshipment and logistics hub will be built in Makmal, where the track will transition to the 1,520-millimeter gauge used in the wider regional rail network. According to representatives of Kyrgyz Temir Zholu, locating the transshipment center in Makmal rather than at Torugart avoids the difficulties of constructing such infrastructure in high-altitude terrain and allows the creation of a major logistics hub (Kaktus Media, 2024a). Initially, diesel locomotives will operate on the line, although electrification is planned for a later stage (Adyrna, 2025).
At the end of April 2025, Kyrgyz and Uzbek officials launched construction of three major tunnels in the Jalal-Abad region: Tunnel No. 1, Naryn (Jaman-Davan), 12.5 kilometers long; Tunnel No. 2, Koshtoba (Kazarman), 13.2 kilometers long; and Tunnel No. 3, Fergana (Suzak district), 12.2 kilometers long. According to the director of Kyrgyz Temir Zholu, the total cost of the project is estimated at $4.7 billion. Half of this amount—$2.35 billion—will be financed through a Chinese loan, while the remaining 50% will be covered by the participating countries themselves. The Kyrgyz Republic’s contribution is expected to amount to approximately $700 million. The project will also require the resettlement of residents living along the planned railway route (Kaktus Media, 2024b).
Completion of the railway is expected by 2031 (Railway Supply, January 15, 2025), although some sources suggest that commercial operations could begin as early as 2030. The line is projected to carry up to 15 million tonnes of freight annually, while passenger services are also under consideration (Railway Gazette International, 2025). The CKU railway has frequently been described as “a game-changer for Central Asia” because it is expected to reduce freight transit times between China and Europe by up to eight days and shorten the route by approximately 900 kilometers (Cartwright, 2024).
For the Kyrgyz Republic, the anticipated benefits include increased transit revenues, expanded trade and economic cooperation, and improved access to international markets (Cartwright, 2024). President Sadyr Japarov described the railway as “not just a transport corridor, but an important strategic bridge connecting the countries of the East and West” (24.kg, 2024c). Kyrgyz economist Almaz Kadyraliev (2025) similarly argued that the CKU railway could transform the Kyrgyz Republic into a key Eurasian transit hub, strengthening exports, economic development, and international influence. According to Kadyraliev, the country currently utilizes only 20% of its transit potential. The railway would also establish a new transport link between the eastern and southern parts of the country, strengthening domestic connectivity. The southern route would shorten transport distances by approximately 1,200 kilometers compared to northern routes, reduce delivery times from 20 to 10 days, and lower logistics costs by around 30%.
This article examines the potential benefits and challenges that the CKU railway presents for the Kyrgyz Republic. While supporters portray the project as a transformative opportunity for economic development and regional integration, critics argue that it may offer limited benefits to the Kyrgyz Republic and could create new economic and political dependencies.
Research methodology and conceptual framework
In this paper, we examine the CKU railway in terms of its interests, challenges, and prospects for the Kyrgyz Republic. Why is this project so significant for a small Central Asian state such as the Kyrgyz Republic? The country is landlocked and has a population of approximately 7.3 million people (Kabar, 2025). Its GDP was estimated at $8.5 billion in 2023 and $17.2 billion in 2024 (Economist, 2025a; World Bank, 2024). The Kyrgyz economy remains heavily dependent on remittances from Russia, where more than one million Kyrgyz migrants reside. These remittances account for approximately 93% of the country’s foreign currency inflows. In 2024, total gross inflows to the Kyrgyz Republic reached nearly $3 billion, while outflows amounted to $445.8 million. Net remittance inflows therefore totaled approximately $2.5 billion, representing an 18.6% increase compared to 2023 (Economist, 2025b) and accounting for roughly 24% of the country’s GDP (News.kg, 2025).
Against this background, the construction of the CKU railway is viewed as crucial for the Kyrgyz Republic’s economic development. In 2022, President Sadyr Japarov stated that the country could earn at least $200 million annually once the railway becomes operational (Radio Azattyk, 2024). Because the Kyrgyz Republic is landlocked, the government sees the project as a means to gain greater access to global markets and integrate into international production and supply chains. Former Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov described the CKU railway as a future “road of life” that could transform the Kyrgyz Republic into a major commercial and industrial hub. The project is expected to contribute to the development of the country’s internal railway system, expand access to foreign markets, and generate substantial transit revenues. These changes could positively affect the labor market through higher employment and increased state revenues (Khitakhunov, 2024).
The Kyrgyz Republic’s primary interest in the CKU project is to transform itself from a landlocked state into a transit country. Like the other participants in the project, the Kyrgyz Republic is pursuing clear national interests. According to Kazakh experts, China’s main objectives are both economic and geopolitical: expanding trade and transport connectivity while increasing its presence in Central Asia. China is also seeking to diversify its transport routes, particularly in light of concerns about the vulnerability of maritime trade routes in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. A continental corridor through Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan would allow China to preserve trade access to key markets. For the Kyrgyz Republic, the railway offers the possibility of modernizing its rail infrastructure and generating hundreds of millions of dollars annually through cargo transit. Uzbekistan is likewise strongly interested in deepening economic interaction with China and developing multimodal transportation links. More broadly, the project is expected to produce a multiplier effect across multiple sectors of the Kyrgyz economy (Rail News, 2024).
The project can also be analyzed through the lens of Realist theory, which assumes that states cooperate primarily to advance their national interests. All three participating countries have distinct strategic and economic motivations for supporting the railway. At the same time, the project is expected to contribute to broader regional integration by improving connectivity and facilitating greater trade, economic cooperation, and development across Central Asia.
Regional Integration theory is similarly useful for understanding the motivations behind the CKU railway. Once completed, the railway will provide a shorter and more cost-effective overland route for freight transport between China and Europe through Central Asia. It is expected to strengthen regional connectivity, stimulate trade and investment, and support the economic development of countries along the corridor. The railway will also provide the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan with an important new connection to global markets, improving their integration into international supply chains while reducing transportation costs and delivery times. By linking Central Asia to China’s extensive railway system and Pacific ports, the project could also provide landlocked countries in the region with a crucial outlet to global maritime trade (Luo Wangshu, 2025).
Chinese President Xi Jinping described the railway as a strategic project that demonstrates “the firm determination of the three countries to promote cooperation and seek development together” (Khitakhunov, 2024). The CKU railway is expected to reduce freight delivery times to Europe by seven to eight days, potentially restoring Central Asia’s historical role as a central hub of continental trade (Karimov and Kurbonmuratov, 2023). Kyrgyz journalist Sergei Kozhemyakin similarly argued that Central Asia, situated at the “heart” of the Eurasian continent and surrounded by major powers, could use the railway to realize its long-standing transit potential (Pirimkulov, 2025). In this sense, the project is not only about earning revenues from cargo transit between China, Europe, and West Asia, but also about expanding access to international markets and strengthening the region’s economic significance.
The research methodology employed in this article combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. On the qualitative side, the study analyzes secondary sources, including academic literature and analytical reports, as well as primary sources such as official statements, speeches, and government documents. The research also draws on interviews conducted with academic experts and decision-makers in the Kyrgyz Republic, including representatives of the Kyrgyz Parliament, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and other public institutions. On the quantitative side, the article relies on statistical data from academic and governmental sources, as well as from ministries and international organizations.
Methodology limitations and caveats
One limitation of this study is methodological. Due to time and resource constraints, our interviews could only be conducted with experts and officials from the Kyrgyz Republic. However, understanding perspectives from other key stakeholders—particularly China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia—is also essential for a comprehensive analysis of the CKU railway project.
A key objective of this article is to examine the views of Russia and Kazakhstan, both of which have limited interest in the construction of the CKU railway because it could compete with existing transit corridors that pass through their territories. The project has the potential to redirect part of regional freight flows away from routes currently dominated by Russia and Kazakhstan. Although direct interviews with experts and officials from these countries were not possible, the study incorporates secondary sources, including analytical reports, academic publications, and public statements by Russian and Kazakh experts, in order to reflect their perspectives on the project.
Findings: Challenges and Perspectives for the Kyrgyz Republic
This section discusses the main challenges and prospects associated with the construction of the CKU railway for the Kyrgyz Republic. The findings are based on both primary and secondary data. Secondary sources include academic publications, official speeches, analytical reports, and media articles. Primary data were collected through interviews with representatives of public institutions and academic experts in the Kyrgyz Republic.
a. Challenges
Experts identify several major challenges associated with the CKU railway project, including the Kyrgyz Republic’s growing financial dependence on China, environmental risks, and the possibility of social protests. Some observers believe that the railway will primarily serve Chinese interests rather than the interests of local communities, potentially contributing to social dissatisfaction and political instability (Pirimkulov, 2025). Other concerns include geopolitical implications, high seismic risks, security issues, and the technical complexity of constructing railway infrastructure in mountainous terrain (Cartwright, 2024).
The most significant challenge discussed by specialists is the financial burden of the project and the potential risk of a Chinese “debt trap” (Hu Yuwei, 2025). The total cost of the CKU railway is estimated at approximately US$8 billion, including $4.7 billion for the Kyrgyz section alone. For the Kyrgyz Republic, this represents a substantial economic burden. As Syed Fazl-e-Haider (2025b) notes, the Kyrgyz Republic is “a financially constrained country” that has sought a $2.35 billion loan from China to finance its share of the project, raising concerns about increasing debt dependence on Beijing. The mountainous terrain further increases construction costs and complicates financing arrangements. Dashdorj (2024) similarly argues that the project’s financial requirements far exceed the capacity of the Kyrgyz government, making it difficult to establish a financing model capable of reassuring both policymakers and the public.
Harry Roberts (2019) describes the possibility that the railway could significantly increase the Kyrgyz Republic’s already substantial debt obligations to China as “perhaps the biggest risk.” Kyrgyz economist Almaz Kadyraliev (personal communication, May 2025) likewise warned that rising debt dependence on China could increase economic vulnerability and limit the country’s independent macroeconomic policy. However, other Kyrgyz officials reject the “debt trap” narrative. Kyrgyz Parliament Deputy Dastan Bekeshev (personal communication, May 2025) argued that the Kyrgyz Republic is unlikely to face serious financial difficulties because it is contributing directly to the project and currently possesses the resources necessary to meet its obligations related to the CKU.
According to the draft Republican budget for 2025 and the planning period for 2026–2027, the Kyrgyz Republic plans to allocate $130.5 million to the Joint Project Company responsible for constructing the CKU railway (Kaktus Media, 2024b). Nevertheless, some experts remain concerned that the country could become economically and politically dependent on China because of its growing reliance on Chinese loans and investments. Several analysts argue that the Kyrgyz Republic may ultimately benefit less from the project than China or Uzbekistan (Cartwright, 2024), a view also shared by some Kyrgyz experts interviewed during this research (personal communication with Esengul, May 2025).
The CKU railway, which forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is also viewed as a potential competitor to existing transit routes through Kazakhstan and Russia. By offering a shorter and more direct route between China and Europe, the railway could redirect freight traffic away from the northern corridor that currently passes through Kazakhstan and Russia (Syed Fazil-e-Haider, 2025). Kazakhstan has long benefited economically from serving as a major transit country for rail cargo between China and Europe, and the CKU may reduce some of these revenues. As a result, the project has generated concern among both Kazakh businesses and policymakers. However, some Kazakh experts argue that the CKU railway should not be viewed as a direct threat but rather as an additional regional transport corridor that may complement existing infrastructure (Railfreight, 2024).
Kyrgyz Parliament Deputy Dastan Bekeshev (2025) acknowledged that neighboring countries may dislike increased competition from the Kyrgyz Republic but emphasized that the country also requires major infrastructure projects to support its economic development. He further stated that, according to President Sadyr Japarov, Russia supports the CKU project and that it is unlikely to damage Kyrgyz-Russian relations.
Geopolitical considerations have, in fact, been one of the principal reasons for repeated delays in the implementation of the CKU railway. According to Syed Fazl-e-Haider (2025b), both Kazakhstan and Russia were historically reluctant to support the project because they profited substantially from the existing northern transit corridor connecting China and Europe. For the Kyrgyz Republic, maintaining positive relations with both countries remains essential. As noted earlier, approximately 93% of remittances to the Kyrgyz Republic originate from Russia, where more than one million Kyrgyz citizens currently work. Economically and politically, the Kyrgyz Republic remains highly dependent on Russia, while Kazakhstan also plays a critical regional role. Kyrgyz political scientist Chinara Esengul noted in an interview that Kazakhstan and Russia opposed the construction of the CKU railway and that its development could strain the Kyrgyz Republic’s relations with both countries (Esengul, 2025).
Almaz Kadyraliev (personal communication, May 2025) similarly argued that the project could be perceived in Moscow as evidence of expanding Chinese influence in Central Asia. China’s growing involvement in strategic infrastructure projects may alter the regional balance of influence and potentially contribute to a cooling of Russian-Kyrgyz relations. At the same time, Kadyraliev emphasized that the Kyrgyz Republic could frame the CKU not as a replacement for its partnership with Russia, but rather as part of a broader multi-vector foreign policy aimed at diversifying trade and logistics connections. He further noted that Kazakhstan may regard the CKU as a competing transit corridor, particularly if it emerges as an alternative route for freight transportation between China and Central Asia.
At the same time, opportunities for regional cooperation remain possible if transport systems are coordinated and technical standards harmonized. According to Marat Shibutov, a member of the National Council of Public Trust under the President of Kazakhstan, the total cost of the railway may ultimately reach between $10 and $12 billion because of the engineering difficulties associated with mountain construction. Nevertheless, he argued that the CKU railway is unlikely to replace Kazakhstan’s infrastructure for China-Europe freight transport (Railfreight, 2024).
Environmental concerns also represent a major challenge. Kyrgyz Parliament Deputy Dastan Bekeshev (2025) noted that large-scale infrastructure projects inevitably create ecological risks, particularly when tunnel construction and explosive engineering work are involved. Almaz Kadyraliev (personal communication, May 2025) similarly emphasized that the railway’s environmental impact could be significant given the Kyrgyz Republic’s fragile mountainous ecosystems and high seismic activity. Potential consequences include deforestation, water pollution, ecosystem disruption, and deterioration of living conditions in nearby communities. Land acquisition and resettlement may also generate social tensions, especially if local populations perceive compensation mechanisms as inadequate or decision-making processes as lacking transparency and public participation.
Another major challenge concerns the technical complexity of the railway itself. Due to the mountainous terrain, the CKU railway is considered one of the most technically demanding infrastructure projects in Central Asia (Daryo, 2025). Several analysts have described it as an extremely difficult undertaking from both engineering and construction perspectives (24.kg, 2025a). Azamat Sakiev, director-general of Kyrgyz Temir Jolu, stated that environmental considerations are being incorporated into construction planning and stressed that the Kyrgyz section will avoid protected natural reserves (Eurasianet, 2024).
Finally, some experts warn that the project may increase the Kyrgyz Republic’s geopolitical dependence on China. According to Almaz Kadyraliev (personal communication, May 2025), China’s dominant role as the leading investor and operator of the project could limit the Kyrgyz Republic’s future room for maneuver, particularly in areas related to transit policy and strategic decision-making.
b. Perspectives
According to the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, the CKU railway has multidimensional significance for the country. First, the construction of the railway is expected to accelerate economic development by strengthening the Kyrgyz Republic’s role as a transit hub on the Eurasian continent and significantly increasing cargo transportation volumes. Second, the project is expected to contribute to regional development by improving transport accessibility in remote areas and stimulating trade, tourism, and industrial growth.
The railway is also expected to create thousands of jobs during both the construction and operational phases, thereby improving the country’s socioeconomic conditions. In addition, a separate railway line connecting Balykchy in the north to Makmal in the south is planned to link with the CKU route, which would establish a direct railway connection between the northern and southern regions of the Kyrgyz Republic (24.kg, 2024c). More broadly, the CKU railway is viewed as a project capable of reshaping Central Asia’s economic geography by offering the Kyrgyz Republic new opportunities for integration into international markets through infrastructure development, investment attraction, and expanded economic cooperation (Pirimkulov, 2025).
Bakyt Torobaev, Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, described the signing of the investment agreement on the design, construction, financing, operation, and maintenance of the CKU railway as a historic event for the three participating countries. According to him, the railway represents an important component of the participating states’ long-term transport infrastructure strategies and will generate not only socioeconomic benefits but also stronger interregional ties (24.kg, 2025c).
The Kyrgyz government expects the new railway corridor to become the southern branch of the Eurasian continental bridge, opening access to the markets of Southeast Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, including Turkey, and ultimately the European Union. Officials hope that the railway will enhance the region’s competitiveness in international transit by reducing transportation distances and delivery times, thereby contributing positively to Central Asia’s economic development (Kaktus Media, 2024a). Kyrgyz and Uzbek officials and experts generally regard the railway’s primary purpose as expanding trade with the Middle East and Europe. Ravshan Nazarov, an expert affiliated with Uzbekistan’s Academy of Sciences, stated that the railway would “make Central Asia more important in the global supply chain” (Eurasianet, 2025).
Bakyt Torobaev further emphasized that the railway is a strategically important bridge connecting East and West. According to him, the project is not only an infrastructure initiative but also a mechanism for improving quality of life, stimulating economic growth, and strengthening ties among regions and peoples. He argued that the CKU railway would create new opportunities for trade, investment, industrial and logistics development, while also generating thousands of jobs and providing a major stimulus to the economies of the participating countries. More than 20,000 people are expected to be involved in the project’s implementation. The railway will include 46 bridges and 27 tunnels, meaning that tunnels and bridges together will account for approximately 40% of the entire route (24.kg, 2025a). As Eurasianet (2025) noted, the project would create a direct rail connection between China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, whereas rail traffic between these countries currently depends on transit through Kazakhstan.
Kyrgyz Parliament Deputy Dastan Bekeshev (personal communication, May 2025) argued that the CKU railway will provide immediate economic benefits to the Kyrgyz Republic. The construction phase alone will involve thousands of workers and generate increased demand for construction materials and food products, thereby benefiting small and medium-sized businesses. In addition, the railway is expected to facilitate the transit, export, and re-export of goods through the Kyrgyz Republic, allowing the country to derive economic benefits from trade flows between China and other regions. The project is also expected to stimulate the development of new industries, including cement and steel production, while creating high-quality employment opportunities (Askary, 2024).
Almaz Kadyraliev (personal communication, May 2025) described the CKU railway as a strategically important infrastructure project capable of generating substantial economic, political, and social benefits for the Kyrgyz Republic. Economically, the railway could contribute to diversification of the national economy, improve transportation accessibility, and increase integration into international trade networks. As a landlocked country, the Kyrgyz Republic requires efficient logistics infrastructure, and the CKU could facilitate access not only to Chinese and Uzbek markets but also to broader Belt and Road Initiative networks. The railway could help increase exports, support the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, attract investment, and create jobs, particularly in remote and mountainous regions.
From a political perspective, Kadyraliev argued that the project could strengthen the Kyrgyz Republic’s strategic relations with China and Uzbekistan while demonstrating the country’s capacity to participate in major regional initiatives. Successful implementation of the railway could also reinforce the Kyrgyz Republic’s status as a transit state in Central Asia. Socially, the project may stimulate infrastructure development in neighboring regions, improve population mobility, facilitate access to labor markets and educational institutions, and reduce socioeconomic disparities between different parts of the country.
Chinese business representatives also emphasize the project’s economic potential. Jiang Zhidong, head of the Kashgar-based Xinjiang Jiujiuxi International Trade Co., stated that coal imports from the Kyrgyz Republic are expected to increase significantly while transportation costs could be reduced by one-third (Eurasianet, 2025). Other researchers similarly argue that the CKU railway could strengthen the economies of the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan through transit revenues and job creation (Sharifli, 2022), while also boosting regional trade, expanding economic cooperation, and improving access to global markets for the two landlocked states (Syed Fazl-e-Haider, 2025b). Dashdorj (2024) further notes that the railway will provide the Kyrgyz Republic with direct rail access to China, thereby increasing bilateral trade without negatively affecting the country’s relations with Russia or other regional actors.
The expected economic impact of the project is substantial. Cargo flows along the route are projected to reach 13.5 million tons by 2050, while Uzbekistan alone could receive annual transit revenues of $150–200 million (News Central Asia, 2024). Once completed, the railway is expected to transport approximately 15 million tonnes of freight annually while reducing transit times by around seven days (Preston, 2024). For the Kyrgyz Republic, projected freight volumes could reach 5–7 million tons per year, accompanied by the creation of thousands of jobs, which is particularly important given the country’s economic structure and labor market conditions (Pirimkulov, 2025).
The current Kyrgyz railway system remains fragmented, consisting largely of disconnected sections inherited from the Soviet Union’s unified railway network. The CKU project therefore has the potential not only to integrate the country internally but also to generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually through cargo transit (Rail News.kz, 2024). The railway’s maximum projected speed is 120 km/h, with estimated annual cargo capacity reaching 12 million tons. Analysts argue that the project will strengthen economic ties among participating countries, increase the region’s transit potential, and modernize transport infrastructure across Central Asia. As a result, the Kyrgyz Republic could emerge as a key transportation hub within the region. Experts further note that the railway’s implementation is likely to attract additional foreign investment and generate long-term economic benefits (Railway Supply, 2025).
Kazakh political scientist Eduard Poletaev also interprets the CKU railway as a geopolitical project because it provides both the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan with direct access to China. Uzbekistan does not share a border with China, while the Kyrgyz Republic currently lacks the logistical infrastructure necessary to function as a major transit corridor (Rail News.kz, 2024). Similarly, Ma Jia, Chief Designer at China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co., Ltd., argued that the railway would represent a major breakthrough in cooperation between China and Central Asia by significantly reducing transportation times and lowering logistics costs for companies operating along the route. According to him, the CKU railway could become “an economic breakthrough” for the Kyrgyz Republic (Pirimkulov, 2025).
Conclusion
This article has examined one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects involving China and Central Asia: the construction of the China–Kyrgyz Republic–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a project that has been under discussion for more than two decades. The railway will connect China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan, providing these countries with improved economic access to Europe and other global markets. For the landlocked states of Central Asia, particularly the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan, the railway carries major strategic and economic significance. Although the project was repeatedly postponed over the past twenty years, construction has now resumed.
The CKU railway presents both opportunities and risks for the Kyrgyz Republic. On the one hand, it has the potential to integrate the country more deeply into global trade networks and generate substantial economic benefits. On the other hand, the project also raises concerns for a country that is already highly indebted and heavily dependent on Chinese loans.
Our findings identify several major challenges facing the Kyrgyz Republic in connection with the CKU railway. These include the risk of debt dependence, environmental and engineering challenges, and the possibility of strained relations with Russia and Kazakhstan.
The first and most significant concern is the possibility of a “debt trap.” Our analysis of academic publications, media reports, and expert interviews demonstrates that many observers are concerned about the Kyrgyz Republic’s growing financial dependence on China. The country already owes more than $1.8 billion to China, representing approximately 30% of its total external debt. Many authors refer to examples such as the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka and infrastructure projects in Pakistan to illustrate the risks associated with excessive indebtedness to China. In addition, the Kyrgyz Republic is expected to contribute approximately $700 million to the project from its state budget, which may place additional pressure on the country’s socioeconomic situation.
This financial burden is particularly significant given the Kyrgyz Republic’s existing domestic challenges, including low salaries and pensions, poverty, unemployment, shortages of doctors and teachers, and the continued dependence of millions of Kyrgyz citizens on labor migration abroad. Redirecting substantial state resources toward the CKU railway could therefore negatively affect social spending and the overall economic well-being of the population.
The second major challenge concerns environmental and engineering risks associated with construction in mountainous terrain. Communities living along the railway route may face displacement, while experts have raised concerns about the potential environmental consequences of construction activities in ecologically sensitive mountain regions. These concerns include deforestation, damage to fragile ecosystems, and disruption of local living conditions. In addition, the Kyrgyz Republic is located in a seismically active zone, meaning that future earthquakes could damage the railway infrastructure and generate high maintenance and reconstruction costs.
The third challenge relates to the geopolitical implications of the project, particularly the possibility of tensions with Russia and Kazakhstan. The Kyrgyz Republic remains heavily dependent on Russia economically, politically, militarily, and socially. Since the 1990s, more than one million Kyrgyz migrants have worked in Russia, and their remittances continue to account for a significant share of the country’s GDP. The Kyrgyz Republic is also a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), making Russia one of its most important strategic partners. Maintaining strong relations with Kazakhstan is equally important due to geographic proximity and economic interdependence.
At the same time, expert opinions regarding the geopolitical impact of the CKU railway remain mixed. While some analysts fear that the railway may weaken existing transit routes through Russia and Kazakhstan and potentially create tensions, most experts interviewed for this research believe that the project is unlikely to seriously damage the Kyrgyz Republic’s relations with either country.
Despite these challenges, the CKU railway also offers substantial opportunities for the Kyrgyz Republic. The project is expected to stimulate economic development across multiple sectors, including transportation, trade, tourism, industry, and education, while also improving living standards. The railway could transform the Kyrgyz Republic from a landlocked state into a transit country, significantly increasing cargo transportation and regional connectivity.
Another important benefit is the development of the country’s internal railway system. The CKU railway, together with planned domestic railway connections, could help integrate the northern and southern regions of the Kyrgyz Republic, which remain poorly connected. During the construction phase alone, more than 20,000 jobs are expected to be created. This is particularly significant for a country with high levels of labor migration abroad. Following completion of the railway, additional long-term employment opportunities are expected to emerge, especially in rural regions where job opportunities remain limited. At present, most employment opportunities are concentrated in Bishkek, forcing many residents of rural areas to migrate internally in search of work. The CKU railway could therefore contribute to more balanced regional development.
According to Kyrgyz officials, including President Sadyr Japarov, the railway may eventually generate several hundred million dollars annually for the national economy through transit revenues and expanded trade. Perhaps most importantly, the project could fundamentally alter the geopolitical and economic position of the Kyrgyz Republic by transforming it from a peripheral, landlocked country into a key transit state within Eurasia.
Public attitudes toward the CKU railway have also evolved over time. Several years ago, opposition to the project was widespread, and many public discussions emphasized only its negative aspects. However, perceptions appear to have become more balanced as the potential economic benefits of the railway have become clearer. Although concerns remain, many in the Kyrgyz Republic increasingly view the CKU railway as a project that could bring long-term economic and strategic advantages to the country.
Policy recommendations
Transparency should be established as a core principle throughout the construction and implementation of the CKU railway project. The public should receive timely, accurate, and accessible information regarding the progress of construction, challenges encountered during implementation, financial arrangements, and the project’s environmental and social impacts. One of the most common criticisms directed at projects associated with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the lack of publicly available information concerning project objectives, financing, implementation processes, and long-term consequences. In Central Asia, the absence of transparent and accessible data frequently contributes to rumours, misinformation, and public mistrust, which can generate broader social and political tensions.
To address these concerns, the Kyrgyz government, ministries, and the Joint Project Company (JPC) should adopt a policy of regular and proactive communication with the public. This could include publishing periodic progress reports, issuing official press releases, maintaining informative websites, and engaging with citizens through traditional and digital media. Greater openness and consistent information-sharing are essential for strengthening public trust, enhancing accountability, and reducing the spread of misinformation.
- Ensuring Transparency in Financial Arrangements
One of the most significant concerns surrounding the CKU railway is the possibility of increasing debt dependence on China. In order to reduce public anxiety and prevent mistrust, government institutions should ensure full transparency regarding all financial aspects of the project. This includes publicly disclosing the total amount of funding received, the sources of financing, and the precise terms and conditions of loans and investments, including interest rates, repayment schedules, and any collateral or strategic guarantees attached to the agreements. Transparent communication about financial obligations is necessary not only for public accountability but also for strengthening confidence in the long-term sustainability of the project.
- Transparency in Employment Practices
Transparency regarding employment practices is also essential during both the construction and operational phases of the CKU railway. In many infrastructure projects financed by China, the predominance of Chinese labor has generated dissatisfaction among local populations and contributed to anti-Chinese sentiment. To mitigate such tensions, authorities should regularly publish detailed information about the composition of the workforce, including the number of local and foreign workers employed in the project. Wherever possible, priority should be given to employing local workers and contractors. Expanding opportunities for Kyrgyz citizens to participate in construction, logistics, and related sectors would maximize the project’s domestic economic benefits while strengthening public support for the railway.
- Transparency Regarding Environmental and Social Impacts
The local population should be fully informed about the potential environmental and social consequences of the CKU railway project. Construction activities in mountainous and ecologically sensitive areas may create environmental risks, including ecosystem disruption, deforestation, water pollution, and damage to local infrastructure and livelihoods. In addition, some communities may face displacement or resettlement as a result of construction activities. Government institutions and the JPC should therefore establish mechanisms for open public consultation and regular environmental reporting. Any environmental or social problems that emerge during construction should be addressed transparently and in cooperation with affected communities.
- Promoting Public Awareness of the Project’s Potential Benefits
Government ministries and the Joint Project Company should regularly prepare and publish economic analyses assessing the project’s expected impact on trade, employment, transit revenues, regional development, and investment attraction. Increasing public understanding of the potential opportunities associated with the CKU railway may help reduce social tensions, strengthen public engagement, and foster broader support for the project.
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