CAP POLICY BRIEF by Wilder Alejandro Sánchez, March 19, 2026
Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is President of Second Floor Strategies, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C. He covers geopolitical, defense, environmental and trade issues in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Western Hemisphere. This article is based on a presentation given by the author titled “The Caspian Sea at the Regional Ecological Summit 2026” for the webinar Water Security and Transboundary Cooperation in Central Asia organized by George Washington University’s Central Asia Program and Civitas University in December 2025.
Policy context and problem statement
Central Asia faces a range of environmental challenges, including extreme temperature fluctuations, water insecurity, environmental degradation, deforestation, air pollution, and melting glaciers. The legacy of the Soviet Union’s nuclear tests also continues to affect the region. Climate change is exacerbating many of these challenges even as governments pursue a green energy transition. The loss of the Aral Sea, which nowadays resembles a series of interconnected lakes, is a grim reminder of the consequences of inaction or insufficient environmental protection; today, the Aral is estimated to be just 10% of its 1950s size.
Addressing these issues is critical not only for environmental protection but also for sustaining Central Asia’s growing population and expanding international connectivity. However, the region’s environmental challenges are highly complex, as they often intersect with regional geopolitics; moreover, some regional governments do not appear to prioritize environmental protection. To address these issues in a multilateral setting, Kazakhstan will host the high-level Regional Ecological Summit (RES-26) from April 22-24. The summit must be more than another forum for discussion and diplomatic photo opportunities. Astana must take a leadership role by convincing its neighbors across the Greater Central Asia region and international partners to focus more on environmental protection, particularly water security, for the sake of not just Kazakhstan but the entire region.
Central Asian Ecological Challenges
Extensive research has documented the environmental threats facing Central Asia. Some problems are long-standing, others are of more recent origin, and others are directly connected to regional governments’ inaction. In many cases, they are compounded by insufficient policy responses.
The most well-known example is the degradation of the Aral Sea, shared by Kazakhstan and the Republic of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region within Uzbekistan, which has been well-documented. The problem originated in the 1960s, when Soviet-initiated irrigation policies mandated the construction of dams and the diversion of water for agricultural use. Today, Uzbekistan continues to use water excessively for its cotton industry, limiting the amount that reaches the Aral Sea. Renowned journalist and editor Navbahor Imamova traveled to Karapalkstan recently in the winter of 2026, reaching Muynak, the northernmost population center of Uzbekistan. In her photos, a graveyard of ships can be seen, with the waterline now “at least 200 km” from where the Aral’s shore used to be.
Another troubling trend involves the Caspian Sea, shared by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. Pollution, diverted water flows, erosion, and extreme rising temperatures are contributing to declining water levels. In Kazakhstan and Russia, shorelines are already disappearing as water levels recede. Continue shrinkage will severely disrupt maritime trade, as the Caspian has become a critical artery of the Middle Corridor, connecting Central Asia and China with the Caucasus and, from there, Türkiye and Europe.
Similarly, air pollution presents another major challenge. Central Asia remains heavily dependent on extractive industries, including mining and hydrocarbons. Moreover, fossil fuels continue to be heavily used domestically, contributing to air pollution, particularly in major cities such as Tashkent, Bishkek, and Almaty. As Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has reported, the deteriorating air quality in the Uzbek capital is due to “poor quality on the extensive use of coal, the large number of vehicles, and a declining number of trees.” Summer dust-storms and harsh winters further worsen the situation.
Climate change is the overarching threat that will intensify other environmental disasters. Warming temperatures are making glaciers melt: in late 2025, Tajikistan reported that the Didal Glacier in the Tajikabad district had “detached and slid more than five kilometers downslope.” The melting of the glacier will likely trigger flooding in the short term while ultimately reducing water supplies for downstream communities once the glacier disappears. The country already suffered deadly floods in 2024, and similar disasters will occur more frequently.
Geopolitics and domestic politics also impact environmental issues. On the positive side, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a regional leader by hosting the Regional Ecological 3 Summit, while Tajikistan continues to promote water diplomacy through the Dushanbe Water Process. On the other hand, the authoritarian government of Turkmenistan’s seeming lack of initiative suggests little concern about environmental challenges, including water security for its population.
Regional water politics are also evolving. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a massive canal project, the Qosh Tepa Canal, that will significantly affect the flow of the Amu Darya River. The river originates in Afghanistan and Tajikistan and flows through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to the Aral Sea. The Central Asian countries have negotiated the water allocations for the region’s two major transnational rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, highlighting the importance of water diplomacy and water geopolitics, but the Taliban shows limited interest in water sharing. The Qosh Tepa Canal could create a new regional water crisis. Similarly, China’s increased use of water from the Ili River threatens inflows into Eastern Kazakhstan to feed Lake Balkhash, Kazakhstan’s most important body of water in the East.
Environmental Projects Abound Despite these challenges, there is a range of initiatives aimed at strengthening environmental resilience across Central Asia. Some governments are taking a proactive role, as evidenced by Kazakhstan’s decision to host the RES-26 in April. Tajikistan likewise promotes water diplomacy through the Dushanbe Water Process. In May 2026, the country will host, anecdotally, the 4th High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development” 2018–2028, which could help maintain the momentum of RES-26 in Kazakhstan the month before. (Tajikistan also hosted a High-level Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation in 2025.)
Regional international organizations are also engaged in environmental governance, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), the International Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program. Beyond Central Asia, Azerbaijan hosted the COP29 environmental summit in November 2024, underscoring the growing importance of environmental diplomacy in the Caspian Sea region.
Several practical environmental projects are also underway, financed by regional or international agencies and institutions. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is implementing reforestation initiatives to reduce carbon emissions. “In 2025 alone, more than 150 hectares of forest plantations and fruit crops, including apple, apricot, walnut, and poplar,” were established, according to FAO. In the Shahritus district of Tajikistan’s Khatlon province, Saxaul trees are also being planted to “stabilize sands and prevent the formation of sandstorms.” Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is gradually expanding renewable energy production, which now accounts for roughly 7% of electricity generation.
The RES-26
It is in this complex scenario that the Regional Ecological Summit will take place in April 2026. The idea for this major gathering was first proposed at the Astana International Forum (AIF) in 2023 by Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. On August 1, 2025, the Kazakhstani city of Aktau hosted a meeting of Central Asian ministers of environmental agencies to prepare for RES-26. The session presented and adopted the updated Concept of the 2026 Regional Ecological Summit, along with a draft Joint Declaration of the Heads of State of Central Asia.
Additional preparatory meetings have followed. In February 2026, UNICEF convened “a senior-level preparatory meeting [which] brought together distinguished representatives of the Ministries of Education and Ministries of Environment from five Central Asian countries, alongside international organizations and development partners.” The meeting addressed initiatives such as the Regional Green School Platform and the growing impact of climate change, and examined environmental risks to children. The delegations also visited the venue of the upcoming Summit. Also in February, Kazakhstan organized two conferences in Astana, “Climate-Resilient Water Resources Development” and “Development of a Business Ecosystem for Sustainable Irrigation in Kazakhstan,” supported by the Islamic Development Bank and Eurasian Development Bank.
There will also be several side meetings during the Summit, most notably, the Central Asia Conference on Climate Change (CACCC), organized by CAREC. Meanwhile, the Kazakhstani Ministry of Energy will organize a panel on approaches to a just energy transition amid rising global energy demand. Moreover, UNICEF will organize a workshop focused on the youth, titled the “Future Ecosystem: Children and Youth as Architects of Sustainable Development.”
Astana expects as many as 1,500 participants, including representatives from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), among others.
Analysis and Conclusion
Kazakhstan is increasingly positioning itself as a regional leader on environmental issues. The government is also promoting a pro-environmental stance domestically. For example, Astana City Akimat’s Technological College held an “environmental hour” event on water conservation with UNDP Resident Representative in Kazakhstan, Katarzyna Waviernia, and First Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurlan Aldamzharov, as guest speakers. The two senior officials spoke to around 125 students from Akimat’s Technological College in person and to students from other schools who joined virtually.
At the same time, Astana is also publicly taking a more pragmatic, and unfortunately less green, approach to environmental issues. Perhaps, in line with US President Donald Trump’s criticism of environmental causes, President Tokayev has expressed skepticism of climate change. The drive towards a greener country in Kazakhstan appears to be decreasing. The Ministry of Energy has argued that “after a period of overly rapid decarbonization, many countries are returning to more balanced, pragmatic energy policies that take national circumstances and transition timelines into account.” In other words, while the Kazakhstani government is generally saying all the right things about environmental issues to gain regional and global recognition, there are also statements from Astana suggesting it is not as focused on decarbonization and climate change as expected or hoped.
The country suffered severe flooding in 2024, particularly in the Atyrau and West Kazakhstan regions, where heavy rains increased snow-melt. The number of displaced people was over 100,000. As climate change increases the frequency of extreme weather events, Kazakhstan cannot afford to underestimate the scale of environmental risks.
The Regional Ecological Summit will likely be a success. Astana has demonstrated its ability to host large-scale events, including the Astana International Forum and the 2024 World Nomad Games. However, the summit’s long-term impact remains uncertain. Optimistically, the event will generate new projects, partnerships, and funding commitments from governments and international organizations. Yet the level of regional commitment to difficult decisions to protect environmental water bodies remains unclear. There are crises and government decisions that make meaningful change difficult to achieve; for example, the fate of Lake Balkhash depends on Beijing’s willingness to balance domestic irrigation needs with water-sharing. Uzbekistan must gradually reduce its reliance on cotton production to save the Aral, while Turkmenistan prefers to downplay water security concerns. Moreover, Iran faces growing environmental pressures affecting the Caspian Sea, but remains focused on domestic challenges, not to mention the ongoing war with the United States and Israel. Moreover, the Taliban’s Qosh Tepa Canal raises serious concerns about regional water distribution. It is unclear whether Tashkent can convince the Taliban to at least improve the canal to prevent leaks and ensure that water is shared with other countries. Pressuring the Taliban to do something it does not want to do appears to be out of the question.
Ultimately, the region’s environmental future will depend on sustained cooperation and political will. Present and future generations of Central Asians deserve to live in a healthy environment, with access to clean water, fresh air, green steppes, and water bodies teeming with wildlife. While the region routinely hosts environmental conferences and talks aimed at achieving these goals, concrete progress has often lagged behind rhetoric. The Regional Ecological Summit presents Kazakhstan with a rare opportunity to change that pattern. If the RES-26 produces tangible commitments and sustained cooperation, the Regional Ecological Summit could mark the beginning of a new phase of regional environmental governance.
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