Re-evaluating Russia’s Influence in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute

The significant outflow of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh following the events of September 19–20, 2023, and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan on April 17, 2024, signals a potential shift in Russia’s engagement in the South Caucasus. This rapid departure marks the first instance of Russia seemingly relinquishing its influence in a former Soviet territory so swiftly. The exit from the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic appears to have diminished Russia’s standing in Armenia, sparking a pivot by the latter towards Western alignment, while Azerbaijan continues to remember Russia’s longstanding support.

This Central Asia Program roundtable will examine various facets of the evolving scenario in order to better comprehend the situation in the South Caucasus:

•  Does the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh signify a cessation of Russia’s historical dominion in the area, a presence dating back to the early 19th century?

•  What factors contributed to the ineffectiveness of Russian forces as peacekeepers in the region?

•  Is there a connection between Russia’s actions in Ukraine and these subsequent developments in the South Caucasus?

•  What other strategies might Russia employ to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan within its sphere of influence?

•  Are there substantial grounds for the integration of either of these republics into the EU or NATO? •  What are the global interests at stake in this segment of the South Caucasus?

Speakers:

Yulia Nikitina is an Associate Professor (on leave until October 2025) in the World Politics Department, and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Eurasian Studies, at MGIMO University. She is a specialist in security politics in Eurasia, with a focus on regional organizations and Russian approaches to conflict resolution. She co-authored the RAND Corporation report “Getting Out from ‘In-Between’: Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia” (2018), and has contributed to the edited volume, European-Russian Power Relations in Turbulent Times (2021).

Alexander Iskandaryan is a prominent expert on politics, nationalism, and the contemporary history of Armenia, the South Caucasus, and Eurasia. He is a political scientist and the Director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, Armenia. He has authored many works on these topics, presented papers, and spoken at numerous conferences.

Ahmad Alili is a researcher on the international public policy and regional security of the South Caucasus, the EU’s Eastern Partnership countries, and neighboring regional powers. He is part of several peacebuilding initiatives supported by the EU, the UN, and NATO’s Partnership for Peace Consortium. Currently, he is the director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre (CPAC), a Baku-based independent think tank promoting regional integration in the South Caucasus. He is also a lecturer at the Academy of Public Administration (Baku) on the role of nonstate actors in regional security, geopolitics, public management, and good governance.

Moderator:

Mikail Mamedov holds a PhD in History from Georgetown University, where he is also a Lecturer in History and the Liberal Studies Program of the School of Continuing Studies. His multiethnic Azeri-Armenian family arrived in the US back in 1996, in the wake of the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict. He holds an MA from The George Washington University and a Diploma in History from Moscow Lomonosov State University. He has authored numerous articles on the history of the Caucasus, and on contemporary literature and the Karabakh conflict.