Central Asia Policy Briefs Central Asia Program Series Publications

Eurasia 2014: Into Thin Air

Central Asia Policy Brief No. 10, June 2013

By Eric McGlinchey

Factors that produce democracy can produce violence. Drivers of reform are also drivers of radicalism. Predictable indeterminacy is the surprising suddenness of protest and the ability of social capital to produce liberal and illiberal outcomes.

Predictable indeterminacy is the product of two dynamics: (1) the ability of political entrepreneurs to marshal social capital for liberal and illiberal ends and (2) the reality that the onset of social mobilization is often as much a surprise for those mobilizing as for those against whom the masses are mobilizing.

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