Central Asia Policy Brief No. 9, May 2013
By Volker Jacoby
In spite of ongoing brinkmanship from the two presidents, tensions between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are unlikely to escalate into large-scale violence.
External intervention to help overcome the manifold and intertwined problems between both countries can only yield limited results.
The threat narrative needs to be overcome through an opening in the political space. This will also contribute to addressing serious long-term destabilizing factors such as domestic disenfranchisement, marginalization, and human rights violations.